Michigan State basketball prediction vs Illinois: Can the Spartans stay hot?

On January 20, 2025By Littum

EAST LANSING – Tom Izzo showed Kasparas Jakučionis his utmost respect.

He wouldn’t even try to pronounce his name. But Michigan State basketball’s Hall of Fame coach had plenty to say about the Illinois star’s play.

“To me, he’s one of the best players I’ve seen,” Izzo said after practice Friday. “I think they’re the best team I’ve seen so far.”

The schedule tightens from here through March for the 12th-ranked Spartans, starting with Sunday’s visit from the freshman phenom and his rising no. 20 Illini. Tipoff is noon at the Breslin Center (CBS).

Big Ten-leading MSU (15-2, 6-0) has won 10 straight and 13 of its last 14. Illinois (13-4, 5-2) is the first ranked opponent since the Spartans began their streak with a 94-91 overtime Maui Invitational win Nov. 27 over then-No. 13 North Carolina, which has since dropped out USA TODAY Coaches Poll.

MSU enters Saturday’s games ranked No. 17 in the NCAA’s NET Rankings, but with the schedule’s no. 46 strength, according to KenPom.com. Illinois is seventh in NET and 22nd in SOS.

The Illini lost a great game at home to USC on Jan. 11 with Jakučionis out with an arm injury, and their other Big Ten loss was by four in overtime at Northwestern on Dec. 6. They returned to form Tuesday following Jakučionis’ return from a two-game absence with a 94-69 dismantling of Indiana in Bloomington.

“They had a couple of losses. One of them (Jakučionis) didn’t play,” Izzo said. “They played a couple of good teams and had close games. But right now it is the best team in the league. And that includes us.”

Stopping Jakučionis — pronounced “KAS-per-es/yah-koo-CHOH-nis” — has been a task for opponents when he’s in Illinois’ lineup. The 6-foot-6, 205-pound shooting guard from Lithuania is putting up 16.7 points to lead five Illini players scoring in double figures, 12th-best in the Big Ten and with seven games of 20 or more points.

Izzo said Jakučionis plays like a professional because of his time at FC Barcelona, one of the best club teams in Europe.

“He’s very comfortable in his own skin. Not cocky, very unselfish,” Izzo said. “Looks like a joy to coach, to be very honest. I was really impressed to see him.”

Jakučionis is shooting 41.6% from 3-point range, but is also a well-rounded playmaker, contributing 5.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game from the wing.

“He’s a really good passer,” MSU guard Jaden Akins said. “He makes 3s and he plays really well off the dribble. Shifting. It’s going to take a full team effort. We’ve got to be there and not give them any easy looks or any easy passes and just be solid.”

Brad Underwood reset Illinois’ roster again through the portal with six transfers, along with 7-1 Croatian import Tomislav Ivišić, who leads the Illini with 8.8 rebounds to go with his 13.0 points. Two other starters, 6-2 Arizona transfer Kylan Boswell (11.8 points/5.0 rebounds) and 6-7 Louisville transfer Tre White (10.9 points/5.5 rebounds) are a big reason Illinois leads the nation in rebound margin (plus-12.4) and defensive rebounds (32.18), while they are second in rebounds per battle (45.47).

“The whole team crashes to the glass hard,” senior forward Frankie Fidler, who had eight rebounds to go with his team-high 18 points in Wednesday’s 90-85 win over Penn State. “Box-outs will be important in this game.”

The Illini are averaging 87.3 points per game. game, fifth in Division I, and an average margin of victory of 20 points, which is sixth best. Their defense gives up 67.3 points a game (65th) and ranks seventh in holding opponents to 27.8% from 3-point range.

“They got a lot of new pieces that could do a lot of different things and they’re talented,” said Akins, who leads MSU’s deep scoring with 14.2 points a game. “They go really hard to the offensive glass, so we just have to lock in on both sides of the ball.”

MSU gets six days off between Sunday’s game and Saturday’s trip to New York’s Madison Square Garden to face Rutgers. A long road trip to Los Angeles to face USC and UCLA begins a difficult slate in February.

But first comes a benchmark against Illinois that will give Izzo and anyone else watching the Spartans’ rapid growth and development to see how much of the hot streak is real and how much the easier early schedule meant.

Forecast

MSU 70, Illinois 68: With a crowd whipped into a frenzy thanks to the nationally televised game, the Spartans use their defensive versatility to bottle up Jakučionis in a back-and-forth battle. It comes down to one final possession, with Akins showing that he emerges as MSU’s closer when a big bucket is needed.

Contact Chris Solari: [email protected]. Follow him @chrissolari.

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