Women’s college basketball Bracket Watch: What’s at stake when USC plays Indiana?

On By Littum

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, a look at the lead-up to the Men’s and Women’s NCAA Tournaments along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

The 2024-25 college season continues to provide absolute gems of mayhem and enjoyment. Only three Division I teams remain undefeated and seven have only one loss. That handful could drop even more before the weekend is over.

These upcoming games could make for the most impactful slate until conference tournaments. Every game matters, but to pick up some marquee wins, there are plenty of opportunities in power conferences for seedline maneuvering.

Some key games to watch this week (all games ET):

• Utah at TCU, Friday at 19.30
• USC at Indiana, Sunday noon
• Seton Hall in Connecticut, Sunday at 1 p.m
• Ole Miss at Mississippi State, Sunday at 3 p.m
• Tennessee at Vanderbilt, Sunday at 3 p.m
• Oklahoma at South Carolina, Sunday at 3 p.m

As we discussed last week, the Big 12 has the potential to earn a No. 1 seed, but TCU and Kansas State will likely need few losses in league play. However, Utah has the potential to play spoiler and work its way into an eventual host position if it can pick up a win against TCU. The Utes don’t face the Horned Frogs or Wildcats again in the regular season, so unless they want to put their fate in the hands of Big 12 tournament results, adding another resume win here would be huge.

Indiana’s loss to Butler early in the season has significantly impacted the Hoosiers’ NET ranking, rated as a Quad 3 loss. While the actual equation isn’t publicly available, by tracking the tables, it’s clear that a “bad loss” can hurt a team’s tournament resume. Indiana still has a ways to go to host, but beating one of the Big Ten’s top four teams will be a must, and the Hoosiers have a huge opportunity when USC comes to Assembly Hall.

Seton Hall hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since 2016, but it has crept into the picture with a strong start to Big East play. While I wouldn’t expect a win over UConn, keeping this game close could go a long way toward impressing the selection committee. The Pirates played USC close for much of their early season meeting before the Trojans ran away with it. Margin of Victory plays an integral role in the NET rankings and is a subjective aspect of how committee members can value competitiveness in games.

This weekend is also massive for the SEC, with a late Sunday afternoon filled with quality games. Eight SEC teams rank in the NET’s top 20, with a ninth team (Vanderbilt) just outside that group (before Thursday’s games). The biggest thing I will look for is if an SEC hierarchy is established.

One could argue that this is the nation’s strongest conference, but it will be interesting to see how the selection committee views a conference if it is torn apart by attrition. There are a ton of NCAA Tournament teams here, but how things shake out in the SEC host in March will make this season a fun case study. Vanderbilt has faced an absolute gantlet to open conference play, and this will be its one shot at in-state rival Tennessee. Vanderbilt doesn’t have a “bad loss” on its resume, but picking up its first Quad 1 win of the season would be key.

Blind CV: Fighting for a no. 2 seeds

Let’s try a new game called “The Blind Resume Test”, looking at resumes without revealing the team.

While shakeups could still happen this season, we have a good idea of ​​the top eight teams that will take the No. 1 and 2 seeds. However, the rest of the hosts are a bit up in the air. It has been jarring to see the amount of variation from teams that rank in the top five as opposed to in the mid-30s. NET ranking doesn’t encapsulate everything, but it gives us a fun starting point to dissect teams. Let’s get into it and look at teams that look similar on the surface, but have major discrepancies in my bracket.

Team A Team B Team C Team D

NET

5

32

12

19

SOS

96

45

125

43

Quad 1

1-1

2-3

0-2

3-1

Quadruple 2

4-0

1-0

0-1

2-0

What stands out the most? The big difference between strength of schedule and the two teams with the lowest strength of schedule ranking significantly higher in the NET is why I wanted to dive into this.

Teams B and D have by far the best wins and Team C does not have a Quad 1 or 2 win. Why is there such a big difference in the NET despite how much stronger the schedule and wins have been for Teams B and D? What does that mean?

The margin of victory is extremely significant. Teams A and C have dominated the field in terms of margins. Team A’s only loss was a close game on a neutral floor to Duke, who is expected to be a No. 3 seeded. Team A has won every other game by double digits. Fourteen of those wins have been by 20 points or more, including its lone Quad 1 victory in an impressive performance at Utah. If you haven’t guessed yet, Team A is Kansas State.

All of Team C’s losses were by single digits, with two of them coming to top-30 NET teams (Texas and Oklahoma State). However, I have team C in 20th place on the seed list. NET matters and is perhaps its strongest argument for a higher ranking outside of competitive losses, but until this team actually wins one of these games, it’s harder to envision it hosting. Ready to guess? It’s West Virginia.

Team B has better wins than West Virginia and beat Oklahoma and Utah. However, its NET dropped significantly due to 20-point losses to Kentucky and South Carolina. I wouldn’t consider these “bad losses” regarding its resume, but it matters a lot in NET comparisons. Ultimately, I see these teams as pretty close from a tournament standpoint; West Virginia is not as high as NET indicates and Team B is not as low as it indicates. This team? Mississippi State.

I know what you’re thinking, “But Mark, who is Team D?”

I’ll save you the suspense. It’s Maryland!

The Terps have the best resume of the four teams, which is why they are the highest no. 3 seeds. Why is Maryland’s NET so low?

Margin of victory strikes again. Maryland’s lone loss was to the projected No. 1 seed USC, which is the best kind of loss on a resume, and it was a close game until the end.

However, Maryland hasn’t been blowing out teams like Kansas State and West Virginia have been, causing the lower NET ranking. It’s important to note that coach Brenda Frese’s squad has played a considerably strong schedule, but close wins against a solid team (Quad 2 and 3) do little to improve metrics.

From a pure basketball sense, the Terps need a full 40 minutes of competitiveness. If their most recent win against Minnesota had ended at the 37-minute mark, when Maryland had a 20-point lead before allowing Minnesota a 20-6 run to close it out, the Terps would have jumped quite a few spots in the NET. These things could be the key to separating a deep pool of teams struggling to get on lines 2 and 3.

I have Maryland as the ninth best seed because of what it has proven against some of the top teams in the country, but it is capable of going higher. We’re going to learn a lot about the Terrapins as they head into perhaps the most brutal week of basketball anyone in the country faces, taking on Texas, Ohio State and UCLA in six days.

Coretta Scott King Classic

Why not follow up a wild weekend of league play with an all-new midseason, nonconference doubleheader?

In case you forgot, the Coretta Scott King Classic was announced in September, and oh, hey, it’s already here. Nationally televised on Fox on the Martin Luther King Jr. Day, UCLA will host Baylor at 3 p.m. (ET), followed by Maryland and Texas at 5:30 p.m

This game has significant implications for the NCAA Tournament. As we talked about with the Big 12 last week, it’s in an interesting spot as the “weakest” of the four power conferences. Baylor picks up a game against no. 1 team in the country could open the door for more in the Big 12 postseason.

The winner of Maryland-Texas could become the deciding factor in whether the other is moved to a higher or lower seed line in March.

Mid-major check-in

• UTSA is 15-2 and 6-0 in American play after a nail-biter against Memphis. The Roadrunners haven’t reached the NCAA Tournament or won 20 games since the 2008-9 season, and Karen Aston’s squad is poised to do both. This group is tough defensively, and Jordyn Jenkins is one of the most well-rounded and efficient scorers in mid-major basketball. Watch UTSA take on UAB on Saturday.

• Purdue Fort Wayne recorded its first 20-win season in over a decade last season, coach Maria Marchesano’s third with the program. The Mastodons boast conference wins over typical Horizon League powers Green Bay and Cleveland State, and they also gave Kentucky a heck of a game in November. They’ve never been to the Big Dance, but that might change this year.

• There is a 5-way tie for first in the West Coast Conference, with each team at 5-2. New members Washington State and Oregon State made an immediate impact, but Portland, Gonzaga, San Francisco and St. Mary’s also showed their ability early. The WCC is an absolute grind right now with no clear front runner, but plenty of teams can win any given game. If you are not benefiting from WCC rings on ESPN+, you need to change that.

The Bracket Central series is part of a partnership with E*TRADE. Athletics maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories prior to publication.

(Photo by Kiki Iriafen, left, and JuJu Watkins: Luiza Moraes/Getty Images)