Day three Australian Open Tennis picks, odds and best bets

On By Littum

First-round competition at the Australian Open concludes on Tuesday with a host of exciting matchups. They include Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gael Monfils, Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima and Emma Navarro vs Peyton Stearns. Let’s take a look at the Australian Open’s best bets on the Day 3 schedule. I’m off to a 2-0 start after a successful first day of the tournament, so let’s keep the momentum going! You can also find out about ours Australian Open Men’s Singles Winner Predictions and Australian Open Women’s Singles Winner to be selected for those of you looking for some futures betting.

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML over Gael Monfils (-130)

This could be the marquee match of the entire Aussie Open first round. That certainly is the case for French fans, but even the casual observer must be drooling over this matchup. Gael Monfils is one of the biggest names in the sport, while Mpetshi Perricard is a rising star on tour. Who is GMP? Well, he’s a 21-year-old who has risen to #30 in the rankings (11 places better than Monfils). With perhaps the greatest serve in tennis, he won the Basel title last fall and started this season with a semifinal effort in Brisbane. Monfils is coming off a title in Auckland on Saturday, but recovering from 5 games in a short space of time will not be easy for a 38-year-old who has an extensive history of physical problems.

Parlay: Tristan Boyer -1.5 sets over Federico Coria and Learner Tien -1.5 sets over Camilo Ugo Carabelli (-106)

Both matchups are young Americans who played college tennis against Argentine clay-court specialists. Anything other than comfortable wins by the 2 Americans would be a big surprise. Both Tristan Boyer and Learner Tien are playing well right now. Boyer captured 2 Challenger titles last fall and lost to Tien in the final of another. He also successfully qualified for the main draw of the Australian Open, so he already has 3 wins under his belt in Melbourne. Tien dominated the Challenger Tour down the stretch in 2024 before finishing runner-up to Fonseca at the NextGen ATP Finals.

Meanwhile, both Federico Coria and Camilo Ugo Carabelli are completely hopeless on any surface other than clay. They are the kind of guys who show up to Grand Slams like the Aussie Open, Wimbledon and the US Open just for the paycheck but with no real intentions of winning matches. Neither is likely to win a single set.

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Emma Navarro over ML Peyton Stearns (-130)

Like Boyer and Tien, Emma Navarro and Peyton Stearns are All-Americans who previously starred at the college level (Virginia and Texas, respectively). However, that’s about where the similarities end with these 2 women. Stearns has played well the past year or so, but she is not in the same league as Navarro. They are separated by 39 spots in the rankings (Navarros #8 to Stearns #47). In addition, Navarro advanced to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon and the semifinals at the US Open last summer. Stearns has never reached the quarters in a major and she has only been to the 4th round once. Navarro is only a slight favorite in this first round matchup. She should be a bigger one and therefore the value on her is great.