What can Mexico do if Trump tries to mass deport non-Mexicans across the border?

Mexican authorities have repeatedly promised to welcome their citizens back if the incoming Trump administration follows through on threats of large-scale deportations.

“It’s our commitment,” said President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has outlined plans to increase aid to millions of Mexican citizens facing potential deportation from the United States — and increase aid to those forced back to Mexico.

But less clear and more problematic is how Mexico’s leaders will respond if, as expected, President-elect Donald Trump pushes them to also accept deportees from other countries – either asylum seekers immediately sent back from the border or migrants living in US states .

“This will be one of the first pressures Mexico faces,” said Eunice Rendón, a columnist and expert on migrant issues. “Donald Trump wants to send non-Mexicans back to Mexico, especially those from countries like Venezuela, with which the United States does not have diplomatic relations.”

Mexico is under no legal obligation to take back non-citizens, although many traveled through Mexico to reach US territory. But in the past it has caved in under the threat of tariffs that could cripple its economy.

Trump is again promising massive tariffs unless Mexico – which sends more than 80% of its exports north of the border – capitulates to his demands. That leaves Mexico with little leverage to push back, experts say.

In December, Sheinbaum said her administration preferred that Washington send non-Mexicans directly back to their home countries and leave Mexico out of it. But she recently signaled that Mexico might work with the United States to accept some third-country nationals.

Trump’s next administration is reported to be considering somehow reviving two of its controversial programs — known as Remain in Mexico and Title 42 — that sent tens of thousands of non-Mexican asylum seekers back to Mexico detained at the southwest border. Under Remain in Mexico, they were returned to await US court appearance. Under Section 42, a public health measure invoked during the COVID-19 pandemic, migrants were immediately returned to Mexico without court dates.

Many of the asylum seekers became victims of crime and became a burden on Mexican towns and cities that host them. The Biden administration ended both programs.

During Trump’s first administration, Mexico agreed to accept non-Mexican deportees, mostly limited to Spanish speakers from Central and South America and Cuba, as well as Haitians.

Sheinbaum said this month that Mexican officials could “cooperate through various mechanisms” with their American counterparts. She and her representatives have not clarified what terms Mexico will seek. But analysts say they will undoubtedly push for caps on the number and nationality of deportees.

“I see Mexico agreeing to accept some third-country nationals apprehended at the border and take them back,” said Adam Isacson, an analyst at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and advocacy group. “It’s already happened.”

After President Biden ended Title 42, Mexico agreed to accept up to 30,000 deported migrants a month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela — countries that for political and other reasons pose challenges to direct deportations from the United States. That agreement remains in place.

“The really difficult thing for Mexico would be if the Trump administration tries to force Mexico to accept Venezuelans and others who live in the interior of the United States and face deportation,” Isacson said. “It would be difficult. Mexico is in a really difficult situation.”

When the president-elect takes office on Monday, experts expect a flurry of executive orders on the Southwest border and deportations — cornerstones of Trump’s campaign.

Republican members of Congress are already trying to codify Remain in Mexico into US law. Critics called the policy inhumane to those fleeing persecution, but supporters said it was an effective deterrent to false asylum claims. And Trump advisers, many of whom have pushed Title 42 for years, have appeared eager to reintroduce the measure.

Whatever happens on Inauguration Day, thousands of US-bound migrants in Mexico are watching closely.

They are caught between heightened Mexican enforcement — authorities reported a record of more than 1 million immigrant detentions last year, sending many back to southern Mexico — and a Biden administration policy that in June raised legal standards for asylum applications and blocked access for those who cross the border illegally.

Few migrants appear to consider staying in Mexico a viable option.

“It’s urgent for us to get to the United States – everyone says it will be harder once Trump arrives,” said Daisy Fernández, 24, from Venezuela, one of several hundred migrants camped outside a bus station in Mexico City. “We have a lot of friends and family now in the US who tell us that once you cross the border, you can easily find a job. Your life immediately changes for the better.”

Told that Trump is considering deporting Venezuelans and other non-Mexicans back to Mexico, Fernández was adamant.

“We don’t want to be in Mexico in any way — we don’t care,” said Fernández, who like other migrants spoke of abuse by Mexican immigration agents, police and criminals as they crossed the nation.

“There are a lot of problems in Mexico and no work. We want to reach the United States, whether Trump likes it or not,” she said. “If they deport us back to Mexico, we will keep trying to cross into United States.”

She and her partner said they arrived in Mexico City last week after a two-month trek overland. They planned to head north before Inauguration Day.

Both applied for deals with US authorities through CPB One, a Biden administration app program that has facilitated US entry for nearly 1 million asylum seekers waiting in Mexico. But it can take more than six months to get an appointment.

“We have submitted the application, but we do not have an agreement,” Fernández said. “Anyway, I don’t think it makes a big difference because we’ve heard they’re going to cancel CBP One the same day Trump becomes president.”

Osmar Villa, 31, who was a restaurant worker in Cuba, also planned to leave the camp and try to enter the United States before Trump takes office.

“I will try as many times as possible to cross into the United States and make a life there,” Villa said. “Staying in Mexico is not an option for me.”

Special correspondent Cecilia Sánchez Vidal contributed to this report.