Is it really going to snow next week in Houston?

I don’t want to get too technical about the forecast, but I wanted to share my thoughts on next week with you. There is something magical about snow. I think it’s because it’s so rare that we in Houston get it.

RELATED: ERCOT Issues Weather Watch ahead for arctic blast, possible snow

On average, it snows once every four years, but it certainly feels like it doesn’t happen that much. I visited Jan Schiff Elementary in Missouri City earlier this week and when I mentioned the possibility of snow, the kids went wild! And the teachers cheered even louder for a chance to have a snow day. The image below shows the explanation of the difference between snow and freezing rain. If you can’t, tell me it’s me sliding on freezing rain.

Before I get to the weather forecast:

Let’s talk about how we predict winter weather, it’s a process.

Last weekend I started getting texts asking, “Is it going to snow?” I get it, the long-term data you can find online is tempting to buy into, but here’s the thing: it’s often way off. If I had a nickel for every time the 10-day US model predicted a hurricane that hit Houston, I’d be rich!

PREVIOUS: Snow in Houston? It could become a reality in early 2025!

There is a careful process we follow when looking at what the future holds. It’s not just about looking at one model; it is about analyzing, comparing and interpreting the data. I put together this video to explain how it all works. Check it out.

The key is the low:

Forecasting winter weather in Southeast Texas is no easy task. The atmosphere has to perform a perfect balancing act to give us snow.

First, temperatures must be below freezing at the surface. Then we need a low pressure system to pull moisture from the Gulf and put it over the cold air. On top of that, the upper atmosphere must also be below freezing, otherwise we’re talking sleet or freezing rain, not snow. Low cold air just won’t cut it for snow.

RELATED: How to drive in snow or ice (if absolutely necessary)

The honest answer is many things. We are four days away and the low could move too close or too far away. If the low point is in the wrong place, we get ice or possibly nothing at all. And that’s why we’re always watching, always tracking. We’ll adjust when we get to Monday afternoon, and I hope you’ll join us for the ride by watching us on KPRC 2, our live stream, and downloading (if you haven’t already) our StormTracker app.

A final note:

I didn’t want to overwhelm you with too many details about next week, but here are two important points to keep in mind:

1. The event can start with snow on Monday evening. If snow follows, the roads become dangerously icy and treacherous.

2. Houston could experience a hard freeze, with temperatures dropping below 24°F Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

For more details on next week’s forecast, visit click2houston.com/weather. We’ve got you covered.