MLB 2025 free agency: Pete Alonso’s deal prediction, best fit

Pete Alonso is an old-school star: a big name with big power who has played in a big market. Since his rookie season in the majors in 2019, only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs—and no one has driven in more runs. He has been selected to four All-Star teams, won two Home Run Derby titles, played with great enthusiasm and energy and rarely sat out a game.

But it’s a new school world, and Alonso’s free agency has been a slow grind as front offices focus on his age (he’s entering his age-30 season), his relatively mediocre on-base percentages the past two seasons (.318 and .329 ), his career-low slugging percentage in 2024 (.459), and his lack of defensive and baserunning value.

It’s all made Alonso the most fascinating free agent this offseason. Do his consistent power numbers make him worth a nine-figure contract? Is he overrated? Has agent Scott Boras once again miscalculated the demand for one of his clients? Perhaps a return to the New York Mets is inevitable, especially since the Alonso camp has proposed a three-year deal with opt-outs to the Mets — a big difference from the seven-year, $158 million contract offer Alonso reportedly turned down in 2023. (But just (because Alonso might be willing to sign a shorter contract doesn’t necessarily mean the AAV will also drop).

Let’s dig into Alonso’s situation and see—even with his eye-popping home run and RBI totals—if he’s worth a huge deal and which teams might still be a potential match.

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The other nine-figure first basemen

Obviously, Boras initially saw his client as a nine-figure player—you don’t turn down $158 million without the firm belief that a huge payday is in store—so let’s compare Alonso to other first basemen who have signed 100 million dollar deals.

Excluding extensions that Albert Pujols and Freddie Freeman signed early in their careers, which aren’t necessarily comparable since they were much younger, we get a list of 14 players, including contracts that Pujols and Freeman later signed as free agents. The list starts with Jason Giambi in 2002 and goes through Freeman and Matt Olson in 2022. Some details for the 14:

Now look at Alonso:

You can see the immediate problem: Alonso is the same age but hasn’t been as good as this group combined. The only player with a lower average WAR than Alonso before his new contract was Ryan Howard. (It was an odd deal. Howard signed it in April 2010, but the five-year, $125 million extension didn’t kick in until 2012. In 2008 and ’09, Howard averaged 2.8 WAR; in 2010 and ’11, he was in average 1.2 WAR Regardless, he had a lower WAR than Alonso.)

OK, defense and baserunning drag Alonso’s WAR down quite a bit – as was the case for Howard. Alonso gets paid for his bat. How does he compare as a hitter only?

Again, Alonso is significantly lower. The only player on the list with a lower OPS+ was Eric Hosmer — and of course his eight-year, $144 million contract with the San Diego Padres was a disaster, resulting in just 3.6 WAR with San Diego. In fact, that deal still has one season left, and Hosmer last played briefly in the majors in 2023. Hosmer’s two-season WAR average was 3.0 — roughly the same as Alonso’s — but that hardly fits his contract. If anything, it’s a warning about what can go wrong in overpaying a good-not-good player.

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How first basemen age

All of this doesn’t even take into account that first basemen often possess “old player skills” – power and plate discipline, but lack speed, arm or other untapped athletic ability. That certainly describes Alonso. These types of players generally do not age well.

See how the group of expensive first basemen ages. Remember, in the two seasons before their new contracts, they averaged 5.1 WAR. In the first three seasons after the new deals, they averaged 3.3 WAR. In the first five years, that drops to an average of 2.4 WAR.

Pujols and Miguel Cabrera are two of the more famously bad contracts of all time — although Pujols could at least play his first five seasons with the Angels, averaging 3.0 WAR; it was just a big drop from his days with St. Louis Cardinals. Cabrera’s extension started when he was 33, and that 2016 season would be his last good year. Chris Davis produced negative WAR after re-signing with the Baltimore Orioles.

The good news is that a few of the players managed to maintain their production, including three this decade: Freeman, Olson and Paul Goldschmidt. Freeman, though his deal with the Dodgers started with his age-32 season, has a 155 OPS+ through his first three seasons in LA, a slight improvement over his last few seasons with the Atlanta Braves. Olson’s three-year numbers have been bolstered by his monster 2023 season (7.4 WAR), but he’s been more or less the same player (even though he was 28 in the first year of his contract). And though Goldschmidt opted out in 2024, the final year of his five-year deal, that stretch included an MVP award in 2022 at age 34.

There are actually some things to like about Alonso that suggest he might be able to sustain this level of offensive production. His bat speed remains elite, ranking in the 93rd percentile. He naturally hits the ball hard (80th percentile in hard hit rate) and has above-average plate discipline (75th percentile in walk rate and 67th in chase rate). But his strikeout rate has increased over the past two seasons from 18.7% in 2022 to 24.7% in 2024, so that’s a concern. Still, bat speed and power are his big pluses, and given that he’s played at Citi Field — a tough home run park — his power should translate to most stadiums.

There is also the predictability of Alonso’s power. He is one of only three players with at least 30 home runs each of the past three seasons — and he has averaged 40. The other five: Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber, Yordan Alvarez and Corey Seager. Schwarber most resembles Alonso in terms of style and ability (more walks and strikeouts, but also limited defensively). In his 30-year-old season in 2023, Schwarber smashed 47 home runs; in 2024 he reached 38.

A simple way to look at this: How many of those 14 contracts would these teams re-sign? Of the 14, six are a clear “no”. Giambi and Mark Teixeira are “probable,” though neither player was that good after their new deals. Same with Adrian Gonzalez. The aforementioned three in this decade, plus Joey Votto and Todd Helton, would be a “yes.” It makes it feel like any Alonso contract has a 50/50 chance of working out.

And again – most of these guys were better all-around players than Alonso. Even if he maintains his current level, you don’t get the benefit of a Freeman or Goldschmidt. You can see why a long-term deal for Alonso feels extremely risky and why that six or seven deal is unlikely to happen now. A three-year deal feels much more palatable at this point — and it could come in under $100 million, perhaps with opt-outs like Cody Bellinger’s deal last offseason with the Chicago Cubs.

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Which teams can still fit?

A better question might be: Who are the Mets even fielding? Consider the teams that entered the offseason most in need of a first baseman and could conceivably afford the $100 million payout Alonso expected in free agency (maybe didn’t think now):

The Arizona Diamondbacks then acquired Josh Naylor to replace Walker, and the Texas Rangers acquired Jake Burger to replace Lowe (and signed Joc Pederson as the DH). The Seattle Mariners have the need but not the will to spend the money. The Los Angeles Angels needed a DH but traded for Jorge Soler. It probably doesn’t help that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays, so far unable to reach an extension, threaten Guerrero’s free agency next offseason.

So who does that leave? Here are the teams with the biggest needs at first base, starting with the obvious favorite.

Mets: The Mets shouldn’t be desperate to sign Alonso; after all, they could move Mark Vientos, a subpar defensive third baseman, to first base and sign Alex Bregman to play third. Or give Brett Baty another shot at third base. Heck, they could sign both Bregman and Alonso and use one of Vientos or Alonso as the DH. And given that money is not an option for the Mets, they might be one of the teams thinking ahead to Guerrero’s free agency.

Angels: They have been rumored as a possibility, but it could just be Boras trying to generate interest. They first have Nolan Schanuel and Soler at DH. They might not be quite ready to give up on Schanuel after just one full season in the majors (1.3 WAR), but it’s pretty clear he lacks the power you want starting (13 home runs in 2024) . It’s also hard to imagine they would regularly play Soler in the outfield, but this is a desperate franchise and the Angels have made splashy free-agent signings in the past.

Seafarers: They need a middle bat, but first they need to trade Luis Castillo, who is making $24 million over the next three seasons. A three-year deal for Alonso at $30 million to $32 million per year would still be a salary increase, plus it’s not clear that trading Castillo for Alonso makes the Mariners better.

Tigers: They seem interested in Bregman, but in theory they could move Keith to third base and play Alonso at first. Or use him at DH if they are willing to insert Kerry Carpenter in the outfield.

San Francisco Giants: They were 20th in the majors in OPS from 1B/DH in 2024 and would first ride a LaMonte Wade Jr./Wilmer Flores division. Maybe a full-time DH role suits Alonso here.

Cincinnati Reds: As far as necessary, the reds can place themselves first. Their DHs hit .206 with a .599 OPS (only the Texas Rangers were worse). Their first basemen also ranked 29th in OPS. Alonso could hit 50 home runs in that park, but it’s hard to imagine the Reds spending the money, even on a short-term deal.

Blue Jays: They need offense. While it’s unlikely they would trade Guerrero — at least until the trade deadline, and only then if they’re out of it — it could still work out and provide a potential replacement for Guerrero in 2026.

Athletics: Hey, they spent some money in the offseason and were 28th in OPS at first base in 2024. That would be fun, but this is still the A’s we’re talking about — and they’ll probably give Tyler Soderstrom another shot .

You can see the problem: There just aren’t many fits here at a high price, even at the three-year, $90 million to $100 million level. Maybe a surprise team jumps in on a short-term deal with an opt-out, but at the end of the day, it still feels like the Mets. A $100 million-plus deal seems questionable, but New York is where Alonso belongs, where the fans love him — and he’ll certainly have fun hitting Juan Soto.