These countries would receive the most deportees under Trump

On January 17, 2025By Littum

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum recently said she is open to the possibility of accepting non-Mexicans deported from the United States under the next Trump administration.

That would be unusual because the United States is generally limited to deporting immigrants only to their home countries, experts say.

But Mexico has previously agreed to accept some non-Mexicans and may do so again, experts say.

In fiscal year 2024, under the Biden administration, the United States deported nearly 272,000 immigrants to 192 countries, including about 224,000 migrants arrested near the northern and southern borders by US Customs and Border Protection, and about 48,000 arrested in the interior of the United States by Immigration and customs enforcement according to the ICE year 2024 report.

However, Trump plans to declare a national emergency and use the US military to help carry out the largest mass deportations in US history.

The non-Mexicans the Sheinbaum administration agrees to accept will most likely be limited to recent migrants from the nearby northern triangle Central American countries of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, said Ariel Ruiz, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research group.

Mexico mainly accepted migrants from these countries during the first Trump administration, which implemented a policy known as Remain in Mexico. This policy, aimed at deterring migrants, required asylum seekers to wait for hearings in US immigration courts while still in Mexico.

Mexico also mostly accepted Central Americans when the first Trump administration used a rule under the US Health Code known as Title 42 to quickly deport migrants who arrived at the southern border during the COVID-19 pandemic. Title 42 deportations continued under the Biden administration, but ended in May 2023.

In January 2023, Mexico agreed to accept up to 30,000 migrants a month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela under a Biden administration policy aimed at discouraging migrants from those countries from making the dangerous trek to the United States

At the same time, the Biden administration opened an option for asylum seekers from these countries to apply for humanitarian parole to enter the United States

So it is possible that Mexico will also accept migrants from those four countries, Ruiz said.

It is possible that Mexico will also accept some Cuban immigrants deported from the United States, Ruiz said.

Record numbers of migrants from Cuba and Venezuela have fled political repression and economic turmoil in recent years and are now living in the United States, where they could be vulnerable to deportation under Trump’s mass deportation plans.

But the United States has strained diplomatic relations with Cuba’s communist government and the socialist government of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Madura, making it difficult for the United States to deport migrants to those countries, Ruiz said.

However, Mexico maintains good relations with both countries and may therefore be willing to accept migrants from Cuba and Venezuela who could then more easily be sent to their home countries from Mexico, Ruiz said.

It is unclear whether Mexico will be as likely to accept non-Mexican immigrants who have lived in the interior of the United States for longer periods of time compared to non-Mexican migrants who only recently crossed the border, Ruiz said.

“I think it’s possible, but maybe not likely, that Mexico will accept Cubans and Venezuelans from the interior who have been in the United States for more than a year,” Ruiz said.

During the presidential campaign, Trump said he would try and recall Temporary protected status from some Haitians living in Springfield, Ohio, after falsely accusing them of eating other residents’ pets.

But it’s also unclear how willing the Sheinbaum administration would be to accept Haitian immigrants from the United States, Ruiz said. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s former president, strongly opposed sending Haitians back to Haiti because the country is in the grip of extreme poverty. gang violence and uncertainty.

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Why would Mexico be willing to accept some non-Mexican immigrants from the United States?

Mexico may be willing to cooperate on non-Mexican immigrant issues because the United States is Mexico’s largest trading partner, said Andrew Arthur, resident fellow in law and policy at the Center for Immigration Studies, a research group that advocates for less general immigration to the United States

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico to pressure the government to do more to stem the flow of migration to the US

“A tariff threat against Mexico actually carries significant weight,” Arthur said.

The Trump administration could also threaten to limit or cancel the millions of cross-border cards issued by the United States to Mexicans, which would prevent them from entering the United States legally, Arthur said.

“Mexico is our closest neighbor, they want to have a good relationship with us, and that’s certainly true when it comes to keeping the border open,” Arthur said.

Which countries would receive the most deported immigrants from the United States?

If Trump follows through on his mass deportation campaign promises, Mexico will receive the most.

“Mexico will be number one by far,” said Adam Isacson, who directs the defense monitoring program at the Washington Office on Latin America, a research and human rights advocacy group.

About 4.8 million undocumented immigrants in the United States are from Mexico, or about 44% of the total 11 million undocumented population in the United States

El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala will also bear the brunt of Trump’s mass deportation plans, Ruiz said.

Undocumented Central Americans from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala make up about 200,000, or 18% of the total undocumented population.

Combined, immigrants from Mexico and Central America account for 62% of the U.S. undocumented population, according to the latest US Department of Homeland Security estimates.

Mexico is among the top countries on a list of US non-citizens who have received final orders of removal, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement data obtained by Fox News.

The data shows there are 1,445,549 non-citizens on ICE’s non-detained docket with final removal orders, including 261,651 from Honduras, 253,413 from Guatemala, 252,044 from Mexico and 203,822 from El Salvador.

Non-citizens from these four countries make up 67% of immigrants with final removal orders, the data show.

The list includes non-citizens with final removal orders from more than 200 countries. The other top countries with non-citizens with final orders are Nicaragua (45,995); Cuba (42,084); Brazil (38,677); China (37,908); and Haiti (32,363).

Will China accept deported migrants?

Trump has said deporting “military-age” immigrants from China who arrived during the Biden administration will be a top priority, suggesting they were sent by the Chinese Communist government to harm the United States

But China is among several countries that may not be willing to accept deported immigrants from the United States because of strained or adversarial conditions, said Arthur of the Center for Immigration Studies.

A 2020 Congressional Research Service report listed 13 countries as “recalcitrant” or uncooperative in accepting repatriation of their citizens. The list includes China, Cuba, Russia, India, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan.

The report also lists 17 countries at risk of not accepting the repatriation of their citizens, most of them African nations or near Africa: Algeria, Ethiopia, Mauritania, Sierra Leone and Yemen.

“It’s all a matter of diplomatic pressure and encouraging them to honor their commitments,” Arthur said.