2025 NFL Divisional Round Start Sit Decisions: Buy Jared Goff

The 51.5 total in this game is high enough to have the Bills with a better implied team total than the Eagles, despite the Eagles being favored and Buffalo entering the weekend as a dog.

Start: David Montgomery, Lions

I have no idea how much David Montgomery will play on Saturday. But he practiced fully during the week and didn’t even get a game day. That would normally tell me he’s good to go for Detroit’s upcoming game. The Lions and their massive team total will be all the rage this week. The only way to access the team at any ownership discount may be by making the jump on their goal line back, who finished the regular season with the fifth-most carries inside the five-yard line despite missing three games .

Seated: Joe Mixon, Texas

I got burned fading Mixon last week, but to be fair to Wild Card Kyle, the thesis was that Mixon wouldn’t be able to handle the negative game script. The Texans stuffed the Chargers and beat Mixon up for a great game. There’s no way they’re pulling out as 8.5 point dogs, right? Mixon has been a true RB1 in wins and a nightmare in losses this year.

The most shocking part of this breakdown is his drop in receiving output in losses. That’s enough noise, but Mixon has also topped a 60 percent route rate in just two games. The Texans use Dare Ogunbowale as their two-minute back, limiting Mixon’s receiving production in losses. On a board full of stars at running back, Mixon is not a priority option.

Seated: Kyren Williams, Rams

My advice for driving back is to fade the two players on the teams with the lowest team totals. Their modest workloads make the argument even easier. Williams’ target percentage of eight percent ranks 37th among running backs. His mark of 0.52 yards per carry. route running are two running backs who aren’t the worst in the NFL. Williams’ fantasy value is based solely on touchdowns, and only the Texans are projected to score fewer points than LA in the divisional round.

Wide receiver

Start: Nico Collins, Texas

It’s not shaping up to be a good week for Texans fans, but things are shaping up really well for their superstar wideout. The Chiefs run Quarters coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL (20 percent). Collins leads the NFL in yards per carry. route run versus Quarters of 6.2. The distance between him and receiver no. 2, Drake London, is as great as the distance between London and no. 55 wideout. Collins also leads the NFL in YPRR versus Cover 1, Kansas City’s second most common look.

Start: Hollywood Brown, Chiefs

Brown played in just two games during the regular season before being given two weeks to prepare for the postseason. The speedy wideout posted a 19 percent target share and a 26 percent share of the yards in the pair’s appearances. That was while running a route on only 40 percent of the team’s dropbacks. Brown posted mind-blowing marks of 0.44 targets and 2.7 yards per carry. route. Even if these numbers drop with more volume, a potentially drastic increase in routes will more than offset the efficiency regression.

Seated: Cooper Kupp, Rams

It appears to be over for Kupp. The former superstar receiver has earned an 11 percent target share while being targeted on 11 percent of his routes over his past four games. For reference, Puka Nacua has seen 40 percent of LA’s goals with a .37 TPRR during that stretch. The Rams have moved Nacua into the ‘Kupp role’, leaving mostly intermediate and deep targets for the namesake for the elite role itself. Against a Philly defense that prides itself on preventing big plays, expect plenty from Nacua again.

Seated: Amari Cooper, Bills

When asked who their no. 2 receiver would be in the playoffs, the Bills simply answered “No” in the Wild Card round. Khalil Shakir ran 72 percent of routes, while no other Buffalo wideout topped a 53 percent route rate. Cooper finished fifth among the team’s receivers in route completion rate at 41 percent. He earned a paltry three goals.

Tight End

Start: Isaiah Probably, Ravens

Probability’s fantasy viability hinges on Zay Flowers’ health. He’s a fun throw if Flowers, who hasn’t practiced this week, is active. Likely a must-play if the young wideout can’t suit up. Likely ran 73 percent of routes and had a team-high 21 percent target share last week. The Ravens don’t have the receiver depth to fill Flowers’ targets, but they have the manpower to do so. Expect Likely to be heavily involved as long as Flowers is out or even limited versus Buffalo.

Seated: Dalton Kincaid, Bills

We got more of the same from Kincaid in the Wild Card round. He ran just 66 percent of routes and achieved a pedestrian 12 percent target rate. The last time he ran more than 70 percent of routes was in Week 9. A good week for Kincaid sees him play a similar role to Isaiah Likely, who is cheaper in DFS and plays on a team expected to score more points.