The Northwestern Wildcats at No. 20 Michigan Wolverines Preview: Time for a gut check

The Michigan Wolverines were bound to slip up at some point, but few would have predicted it was against the worst team in the conference. Now Dusty May must gather his team and prevent one loss from becoming two. With a 5-1 record and some tough road games, Michigan is still in a strong position in the Big Ten, but Thursday’s loss served as a reality check that raises some serious questions.

At home on Sunday, the Wolverines must find a way to respond Northwestern Wildcats. This is another team near the conference basement, and it could be the perfect opportunity for Michigan to show that the upset in Minneapolis was a fluke. Struggle again – even in a win – and any talk of a Big Ten title will quickly fade away. This is where May can prove he is not his predecessor.

Northwestern Wildcats (11-6, 2-4) at No. 20 Michigan Wolverines (13-4, 5-1)

Date and time: Sunday 19 January at 14 A.M
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/streaming: BTN

Northwestern is just 2-4 in conference play, but those two wins came over teams in the KenPom top 25: Illinois and Maryland (both in overtime). This team is not expected to compete at the top of the Big Ten and may even miss the conference tournament, but losses to teams like Purdue and Michigan State are understandable. Metrics ranks the Wildcats 50th nationally, and they clearly have the ability to pull off an upset.

The Wildcats won by 14 in Evanston last February and outscored Michigan 31-18 over the final 15 minutes. That victory marked Northwestern’s first victory in the last eight (!!) meetings between these two teams. The previous incident was back in 2018, but the Wolverines followed it up with five straight wins to close out the regular season, won the Big Ten Tournament and reached the Final Four…so basically the opposite of last year.

One big question: Is this team deep enough?

Michigan didn’t lose Thursday solely because of offensive struggles, and in many ways the performance was just fine. But an off night from Nimari Burnett, an ineffective outing from Vlad Goldin and a combined five points from Roddy Gayle and Rubin Jones proved too damaging when combined. The Wolverines have some clear stars, but the team will run into trouble if multiple rotation pieces struggle, as the rotation just isn’t that deep.

Northwestern has a top-30 defensive efficiency rating, and while it hasn’t been quite as efficient in conference play, strong efforts against Illinois and Maryland, two solid offenses, should be cause for concern. The Wildcats may not be elite in one area, but they boast an active defense that doesn’t give up the easy look…and they can force turnovers, which is obviously a running red flag. This is another slow-paced team, which means Michigan will have to be patient and get everyone involved.

One thing to watch: Know the plan

Northwestern is dead last in three-point percentage (27.1) in conference play and is fine avoiding the long ball. Instead, the Wildcats are more than happy to attack the rim, as much of their production against Maryland came from inside (similar to Minnesota’s performance against Michigan). The Wolverines have shown solid interior defense for most of the season, but players like Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli can generate plenty of offense.

Since Michigan doesn’t force many turnovers and can struggle on the defensive glass, forcing tough shots is the best chance for success. After Minnesota posted 1.20 PPP, there may be some questions to address on this end of the floor. Five of the Wolverines’ six Big Ten opponents have topped 1.00 PPP, and their defense is on pace for league average in conference play. The stingy eFG rate (46.5) is beneficial, but May’s group has had to rely on denying good shot quality. Michigan has to force Barnhizer and Martinelli into tough looks and hope they don’t fall at an abnormal rate.